90 - investing in interesting predictions

I often seem to be able to predict the development of social, economic and political problems.  That may be due to the fact that I observe situations objectively, outside the ordinary organisational boundaries and associated social and cultural hierarchies most usually associated with influence.

So many people, whether they have much power or not, have strangely unpredictable ideas about freedom, influence and affluence.  They equate freedom with their own selfish impulsiveness and acquisitiveness instead of the inquisitiveness associated with a clear analysis of possibilities. 

It is self-evident that Australia, like many societies, lost the plot long ago.  Indeed, Australia, as a purported constitutional democracy, is probably yet to discover the plot.

I am especially fortunate not to experience loneliness.  In fact, I probably require more time to myself than I am able to experience on most days of the week.  

I experience freedom mostly when I am alone, or at least without the company and/or intrusiveness of excessively annoying creatures of both the human and non-human varieties.  

I feel most creative when I am alone.  That is when I am most likely to have the companionship of the Spirit of Enlightenment in her guise as the Muse of the World.

What does solitude provide in your life?

Perhaps you do not have enough time alone in which to develop your creativity. 

Ignorant people consider the future to be an unpredictable location though my view obviously differs on that subject.

Much of the future is predictable to at least some extent, particularly in the presence of corruption.

Good investments are always associated with good evidence and interesting predictions.  They are also associated with important predictions.

How do you tell the difference between an interesting prediction and an important one?

I am quickly exhausted, and exasperated, by immature people and unreasonable people of any age.  I am always able to predict my subsequent needs after such encounters.

If you are morally challenged, you probably think you do not owe me your time, your consideration, your kindness, or anything else. 

For most of the first three decades of my life, I was not really interested in spending time with people my own age.  I found most young people to be unpredictable and competitive and their behaviours far too indicative of selfishness, or they were boringly predictable.

I still often find the interpersonal behaviours and personal interests of young people to be tedious or otherwise exhausting, unless those young people are exceptionally reasonable and remarkably talented.

Much of my joy in life, at any age, has arisen through the private expression of my creativity.

Having the time and space to express that creativity, in privacy, contributes to my joy.

But what does my creativity give you?

I have given you a chance to read these investment notes to help you invest your time, talents and other resources much better than you have in the past.  I have done so in the public interest. 

I hope you value your ability to experience Frugality Cottage today.

I also hope you value your time here, and mine. 

Perhaps you believe your time is more valuable than mine, and possibly even more scarce, regardless of your current age and purported responsibilities.

Do you often invest time in reading my words?

Do you have plenty of time for such an activity or not much time at all? 

My prediction is that you will never acquire the skills you will require in order to make interesting predictions with any accuracy or to act upon important predictions wisely.

How much time do you usually invest in research each day?

How do you usually assess research processes in relation to investment processes?

How cautious is your approach to social research?

I have been inviting you to answer my questions for many years now.

I have done so directly, with little direct response.

I have also done so through expressions of fiction, with little direct response.

You may have noticed that this is my ninetieth Monday afternoon investment note to you in relation to various aspects of investing.

You are also likely to be aware, by now, that I actively avoid being drawn into controversies of any sort.  I have much more important and interesting things to do with my time. 

You will probably be well aware, too, that I refuse to co-operate with wrongdoers and inadequately talented persons, regardless of how well they consider they know me.  Such people cause me despair. 

How is investing in the future actually possible without a thorough understanding of predictable trends and tendencies?

Talent is associated with predictability.

In a decent society, people are never deluded about their talents.  Remarkably talented leaders will have provided them with evidence of their own talents and how to develop them. 

Decency is too often absent from the minds of deluded people.  And there are far too many deluded people in the world.  They believe their thoughts and behaviours are normal.

You are likely to be aware that I am often involved in assessing candidates for various jobs.  I normally do so from my virtual laboratory in the Tower of Truth, as you may already know.
 
Over the past few months, as usual, I have been assessing the comprehension skills of job candidates in relation to science, history and civility. 

There are many different perspectives to consider, of course. 

What do you believe you know about me, especially in relation to why I am providing these notes for you here in the Frugality Cottage library? 

Good people are always devoted to the truth.  They check facts very carefully indeed.  They do not take information at face value.  They question assumptions.

How can you prove you are a good person?

What does your creativity give you? 

How do you prefer being creative, and why?

How will you compare the 2030s with previous decades, and why? 

How have you been comparing the 2020s, and why?

A decent society is unlikely ever to exist on any scale, anywhere, over the next few decades.

There have never been any decent societies, either, though there have probably occasionally been decent cultures.

As there are no decent societies, and there have never been any decent societies, that is why there are no decent political systems.

There is fortunately the possibility of developing and maintaining decent communities through decent cultures.  That has, in fact, been my life's work. 

You apparently have no idea how to respond to me.

I respond to you as best I can, in keeping with the truth.

I do not respond to platitudes.

I do not respond to other expressions of superficiality.

I do not respond to emotive excesses.

I do not respond to opinionated rubbish.

I do not respond to intrusions into my privacy.

I do not respond to attempts to undermine my decency.

I do respond to the wisdom of intelligent frugality.

I especially respond to experiences of despair, including my own.

How do you define the meaning of community?

If you have attempted to agree upon the meaning of community with members of a community, what have been the results?

As a consequence of my own readings, and my travels, I have compared ideas about normality in different cultures. 

Perhaps my views on normality, and humanity, and justice, and democracy, are incompatible with your own.

If you regard yourself as a well-educated person and you lost a job last year or this year, and such an experience of loss had never happened to you before, then you may have wondered how to rediscover your identity or even discover your true self and/or true worth.

That is quite a normal desire, especially as many seemingly well-educated people shape their identities through their educational attainments and working lives and social lives and not through the essence of themselves philosophically and artistically.   

Negativity towards reasonableness is often matched by positivity towards money.

Perhaps you associate profits with prophets rather than with statisticians and scientific forecasters.

Authentic goodness is associated with an accurate understanding of the world, and of the self.  I am well aware of my own foibles.  I do not seek to hide them.  I simply seek to understand why they exist. 

I have found that quite intelligent persons are frightened of, and by, quaternary creativity.

Unintelligent persons do not understand quaternary creativity at all, which is why they cannot express either an emotional or intellectual response to it.

I have often preferred to rebel against cruelty, in subtle ways, for sensible reasons of personal, interpersonal and environmental safety.  You are probably well aware, by now, of my elegant egalitarianism.

I am especially interested in how cultures emerge, both during and after emergencies, and before emergencies arise.
 
What do you know about the emergence of peaceful, prosperous communities?

I know I am unusually reasonable.

I know I am relatively powerless.

I know I matter to few people.

I know I am often in despair as a consequence.

The Spirit of Enlightenment understands the dangers of road junctions very well indeed.  She understands the importance of torches and keys.  She knows about the benefits of toxicology and the dangers of its misuse.

I hope you mostly place your trust in accurate information.

But how do you tell whether or not the information you receive is accurate?

There are many persons willing to provide inaccurate information for their own benefit.

There are also enlightened beings with the ability to identify inaccurate information.

Last year, I attended many discussions in the sitting room, here in Frugality Cottage.  They were mainly associated with the theme of an emerging culture in an emergency.  You may or may not have been in attendance.  I do not recall interacting with you on any of those occasions.  

I have put a great deal of effort into writing these notes to you, dear reader.  Writing is not easy for me.  I struggle with it even though I enjoy the creative aspects of the process.  I have a great many other responsibilities in life.

Yet the emergency of most concern to me is only just beginning.

How do you know you address emergencies, and prevent emergencies, in good faith and with adequate evidence of predictability?

Keeping away from potential dangers is always sensible.

How do you predict dangers?

Every aspect of culture is an invention.

I write mainly to clarify my thoughts and explore my creativity and solve emergency-related mysteries, in the public interest.

How do you predict whether a thought will turn into something creative or even something destructive?

Perhaps my predictions about your ongoing unreasonableness are unfortunately correct.  

There is much important work still to do, of course.
 
How do your goals and plans relate to interesting predictions?
 
What are your goals and plans in relation to important predictions?

I often feel as though I am nothing apart from my writings.

My writings are me.  They are how I prefer to express myself, socially and emotionally.  

My prediction is that you will not comment on any of the earlier notes here with adequate enlightenment.

All the most interesting and important predictions are based on adequate evidence.  All other predictions are based on nothing more than fantasy.
 
To me, all important predictions are interesting.

By the time I was six, I did not trust many people at all.  I still do not trust many people.

The idea of the better is certainly not the same as the idea of the positive.

Making something better never occurs when problems are denied. 

How well have you been investing time in understanding probabilities, and how do you know?

I am well aware that loneliness motivates people to collaborate for the wrong reasons.  It encourages people to develop relationships with untrustworthy persons.

That is especially evident through youth culture and youth subcultures.

I have found that even quite intelligent persons, of all ages, are frightened of, and by, quaternary intellectualism.  They mistakenly equate intellectual abilities and interests with the acquisition of expert knowledge and advanced eloquence rather than the expression of good reasoning and well-informed kindness.

That is probably due to the fact that many self-proclaimed intellectual persons reveal little about their emotional lives, even privately.  They do not reveal much about their own motives, their own moral reasoning, their own innate temperaments and their culturally-shaped personalities.

They also fail to communicate sufficient information in the public sphere about the contributions they make, and fail to make, towards dismantling conflicts of interest and preventing corruption.  Indeed, their careers are shaped by conflicts of interest they most usually ignore.

How do you distinguish between behaviour and culture?

How do you usually select subject matter to explore?

How do you usually reflect upon the subjective aspects of experience?

How do you usually ascertain objectivity?

How carefully do you distinguish between hope and predictability?

How do you distinguish between predators, predictions and predicates?

How carefully do you distinguish between savings and investments? 

The purpose of savings, of course, is the make good investments possible.

What do you know about emerging technologies, emerging markets and emerging infectious diseases?

How do you usually compare the 1830s with the 1930s, and why? 

When do you follow the thesis-antithesis-synthesis approach to solving problems, and when do you know that approach to be inappropriate?

I certainly would not want to be indoors or outdoors in places susceptible to floods, including flash floods.  Elegance is impossible in such situations.

I certainly would not wish to live in any area where landslides are possible and/or where wildfires are predictable and even inevitable.

I much prefer to provide you with elegant notes each Monday afternoon from the library of a quaint, virtual cottage instead of a seemingly elegant, but possibly dangerous, luxury apartment. 

Perhaps you would prefer this location to be a white box instead.

How have you been investing in historical accuracy, and with what purpose in mind?   

What are your predictions for next year, and how did acquire the evidence with which to you make them?

In my laboratory in the digital Tower of Truth, I have long examined the emergence of no-win situations.  My aim has been to identify dangerous patterns of behaviour arising before, within and after those situations.

Perhaps you have no interest in the concept of emergence whatsoever. 

My interest in, and understanding of, the concept of emergence may be similar to your own, or it may actually be quite different. 

Perhaps you associate the Spirit of Enlightenment with Hecate. 

I do not regard myself as having much in common with the Spirit of Enlightenment or Hecate, or even with Hesiod, Paracelsus or Nostradamus.

How imaginatively, scientifically and compassionately have you been investing in useful inventions with which to address the emergencies facing humanity, and many other species?

How well are you investing in the delights of adequately ethical compatibility, and how do you know? 

What is your attitude towards me at present, and why?

And why do you so often respond to me through non sequiturs?

When have you experienced great joy, and what were the reasons for those occurrences?

Perhaps you expect such joy more often than other people experience it.  Such expectations would certainly be unreasonable of you, and very selfish indeed.

I have experienced considerable suffering as a consequence of incompatibility.  If you wish to prevent great harm from occurring to me again, please try to understand the importance of good leadership and how you may contribute to it.
 
I have long been hoping you may already have a reputation, at least amongst your closest acquaintances, for expressing well-informed kindness quite consistently. 
 
What is your preferred approach to investing in suitable independence, and why?
 
When, if ever, do you prefer time alone?
 
In this virtual library, I have been placing notes on the virtual bookshelf shelf each Monday afternoon for you to consider, particularly in relation to your own investment preferences.
 
Are you sure your expressions of leadership are compatible with the expression of enlightenment?

Perhaps you regard me as an unreliable narrator, even through I try my best to avoid providing you with any sort of narrative.

Perhaps you would prefer me to provide you with a grand narrative.  If that is the case, how much are you willing to pay for such a privilege?

How do you usually make predictions in terms of previews and reviews?

How, for example, do you usually assess policies and other works of art?

Would you prefer to purchase artistic souvenirs of the physical variety or a few items from a tacky range of merchandise or the chance to experience something interestingly imaginative?

How do you usually assess your preferences in relation to predictions, particularly when self-fulfilling prophecies are evident? 

If you have been investing in useful inventions, perhaps that experience has provided you with great joy.

But is most of your joy in life associated with predictions or pleasant surprises?

How do you know you adequately support your own investments in trustworthy collaborations through honesty, freedom, security, certainty and exploration? 

Whose predictions do you most trust, and why?

How have your own contingency plans involved the assessment of predictions?

What do you know about the work of the Twaklin Trust?

How, if at all, are you willing to assist the trust in its efforts to hold deceptive persons to account?

Perhaps my assessments of your deceitfulness are accurate.  You have, after all, offered nothing of substance to support the work of the trust.

You are not investing in trustworthy collaborations at all at present, however much you may delude yourself otherwise.

I am not sure whether you have been interested in reading any of the investment notes I have been leaving for you on the virtual shelf, here in the library of Frugality Cottage.

I have written all the notes myself. I have also written all the additional educational notes myself and placed them tidily for you on the writing table here.

I have predicted that you will not respond at all over the next few weeks.

How, if at all, do you prefer to examine historical records?  
 


I am not interested in investing in anyone unthinkingly passing through this library on the way to somewhere else.

Nor am I interested in investing in anyone too ignorant or cowardly to invest in anti-establishmentarian necessities, such as a sensible approach to sustainability.

 

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